Eurabian Follies

The shoddy and just plain wrong genre that refuses to die. 


By 2050, Europe will be unrecognizable. Instead of romantic cafes,
Paris’s Boulevard Saint-Germain will be lined with halal butcheries and
hookah bars; the street signs in Berlin will be written in Turkish.
School-children from Oslo to Naples will read Quranic verses in class,
and women will be veiled.

At least, that’s what the authors of the strange new genre of
“Eurabia” literature want you to believe. Not all books of this
alarmist Europe-is-dying category, which received its most
intellectually hefty treatment yet with the recent release of
Christopher Caldwell’s Reflections on the Revolution in Europe,
offer such dire and colorful predictions. But they all make the case
that low fertility rates among natives, massive immigration from Muslim
countries, and the fateful encounter between an assertive Islamic
culture and a self-effacing European one will lead to a Europe devoid
of all Western identity.

Despite their Europe-focused content, these books are a largely
North American phenomenon. Bat Ye’or (or Gisèle Littman), an
Egyptian-born British author, wrote one of the first of the genre in
2005, with Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis,
which argued that political subservience to a Muslim agenda was turning
Europe into an appendage of the Arab world. But most of her recent
followers, including Caldwell, the jocular and hyperbolic Mark Steyn,
the shallow Bruce Thornton, the more serious Walter Laqueur, and the
high-pitched Claire Berlinski and Bruce Bawer, write from the other
side of the Atlantic.

It’s not that Europeans don’t produce books in the same vein. Consider Italian journalist Oriana Fallaci’s The Rage and the Pride, a rabid attack on Muslim immigrants, or British columnist Melanie Phillips’s Londonistan,
castigating the British left for handing over the country to the Muslim
Brotherhood. Still, there is no real European version of the Eurabia
panic, and the books that do exist tend to be country-specific, and
part of a fringe far right. They do not dominate the market, while
works by a range of serious scholars, including Italian sociologist
Stefano Allievi’s work on European Muslims, German cultural
anthropologist Werner Schiffauer’s studies of political Islam among
Turkish immigrants, British sociologist Tariq Modood’s Multicultural Politics, and French political scientist Olivier Roy’s Globalized Islam, have offered important, data-driven analyses that undermine the facile dichotomies of the Eurabia myth.

But in the United States, the Eurabia books continue to proliferate
even today, close to a decade after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001,
which triggered the genre. Part of the explanation lies in the
post-9/11 narrative of America besieged by militant Islam — a clash of
civilizations in which Europe is the front line, threatened by internal
subversion. “If Europe is unable to assimilate its immigrants, if
Europe is a breeding ground for anti-Americanism and Islamic radicalism
— and it is — this is our problem,” Berlinski warns in Menace in Europe
(2006). “The threat of the radical Islamists taking over Europe is
every bit as great to the United States as was the threat of the Nazis
taking over Europe in the 1940s,” Tony Blankley writes in The West’s Last Chance (2005). “We cannot afford to lose Europe.”

In this sense, many of these books offer a variation on the
conservative Cold War vision of Europe as vulnerable to the spread of
communism — only now, Muslims have replaced Soviets and
Euro-communists as the enemies. The continuity in clichés with the
Europhobic literature of the 1970s and 1980s is striking: In both
periods Europe is described with terms like appeasing, impotent,
asexual, feminine, post-nationalistic, irreligious, apologetic,
self-loathing, naive, decadent, and so forth.

Clichés are not the only reason why the foundations of the Eurabia
literature are shaky. By relying chiefly on anecdotes rather than data,
these books misrepresent the complex evolving picture of Islam in
Europe. They also eliminate social and economic conditions, including
discrimination, from the picture. “There is considerably more phobia
vis-à-vis Westerners and things Western than Islamophobia,” Laqueur
opines in The Last Days of Europe (2007). Leaving out poverty and racism (which, pace
Laqueur, is a daily problem for Europe’s nonwhites, Muslim or not), the
Eurabia writers overemphasize culture and religion in explaining
tensions and lay the blame solely on Muslims.

After the 2005 riots in French banlieues, for example,
independent studies pointed to the same factors: police violence,
discrimination, unemployment, and a large youth population in the
housing projects where the trouble erupted. But the Eurabia authors
weren’t impressed. Immigrants don’t have much to complain about, they
claim, so the riots were all about jihad, or, as Caldwell suggests in
his recent book, “the Arab cause.” “Even if they did not believe in
Islam, they believed in Team Islam,” he writes.

This is not, of course, to suggest that things are going well. The
bleak vignettes and shocking tales about social tensions and violence
linked to Islamism, like the killing of filmmaker Theo van Gogh, are
indeed part of the picture. But the paradox of this genre is that it
dwells on the heated controversies and tensions taking place in Europe
while at the same time claiming that Europeans are in denial of their
problems. And the emphasis on the anecdotal tends to obscure the fact
that, from the fight over minarets in Switzerland to the debate over
headscarves in France, current tensions are part of a normal and
democratic process of adjustment, not the first signs of an impending

Beyond all the sloppy anecdotal evidence, the Eurabia literature
relies on two major false assumptions. The first is demographic. The
literature holds that Europe will be Islamic at the end of the century
“at the very latest,” with Muslim majorities in some European countries
“in the foreseeable future,” in the words of Bernard Lewis in his 2007
pamphlet, “Europe and Islam.” That’s
because “native populations are aging and fading and being supplanted
remorselessly by a young Muslim demographic,” Steyn explains in America Alone (2006). “Europe will be semi-Islamic in its politico-cultural character within a generation.”

If these books insist so much on the future, it is because current
figures are unimpressive. According to the higher range of estimates by
the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), there are already as many
as 18 million Muslims in Western Europe, or 4.5 percent of the
population. The percentage is even lower for the 27-country European
Union as a whole. The future will certainly see an increase, but it’s
hard to imagine that Europe will even reach the 10 percent mark (except
in some countries or cities). For one thing, as the same NIC study
indicates and demographers agree, fertility rates among Muslims are
sharply declining as children of immigrants gradually conform to
prevaling social and economic norms. Nor is immigration still a major
source of newly minted European Muslims. Only about 500,000 people a
year come legally to Europe from Muslim-majority countries, with an
even smaller number coming illegally — meaning that the annual influx
is a fraction of a percent of the European population.

Finally, though the Eurabia books describe Europe as committing “slow motion suicide” (Thornton in Decline and Fall),
reality begs to differ — and increasingly so. According to
demographers, in 2008, fertility rates in France and Ireland were more
than two children per woman, close to the U.S. (and replacement) level;
in Britain and Sweden they were above 1.9. And though in the 1990s
European countries set an all-time record for low fertility rates,
figures are now rising in all EU states except Germany.

But isn’t the uptick due to Muslims? Although migrant women, some of
them Muslim, have a negligible impact on overall fertility rates,
adding a maximum of 0.1 to any country’s average, they contribute
substantially to the total number of births, typically 10 to 20 percent
in high immigration countries. That is the origin of Mark Steyn’s
overblown claim that Mohammed is “the most popular baby boy’s name in
much of the Western world.” But it doesn’t mean Europe will end up

Caldwell makes a point of highlighting the second and most crucial
false assumption of this literature. The British cover of his book
asks, “Can Europe be the same with different people in it?” For most of
these authors, Muslims are “different people,” and Muslim identity is
incompatible with anything else — an assumption they share with

But to large majorities of Europe’s Muslims, Islam is neither an
exclusive identity nor a marching order. Recent poll data from Gallup
show that most European Muslims happily combine their national and
religious identities, and a 2009 Harvard University working paper
by Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris demonstrates that in the long
term, the basic cultural values of Muslim migrants evolve to conform to
the predominant culture of the European society in which they live.

More generally, average European Muslims worry first and foremost
about bread-and-butter issues, and to the extent that they are
religious, they want to be able to practice religion freely and in
decent conditions, not to impose the caliphate. As a 2006 pan-European Pew Research Center study makes
clear, “Muslims in Europe worry about their future, but their concern
is more economic than religious or cultural,” and though there are
tensions, these are mostly due to racism, not some grandiose clash of

The most likely scenario for the next few decades — increasing
integration of Muslims accompanied by continued cultural tensions,
occasional terrorist bombings, and differentiated outcomes in various
countries — is a conceptual impossibility for most Eurabia authors
because for them Muslims can’t really become Europeans. It is, however,
already the reality. Maybe it is time they take notice.

Justin Vaïsse is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe and co-author of Integrating Islam: Political and Religious Challenges in Contemporary France.